GDP growth overstated by up to 1.3 percentage points a year since FY2014-15, forensic audit finds

Long-standing doubts about Bangladesh's GDP growth figures have now been backed by a government audit. Initial findings of the forensic audit panel on GDP calculation say the country's GDP growth was overstated by roughly 0.7 to 1.3 percentage points every year from FY2014-15 onward. The findings were presented on Saturday, 14 November, at a seminar organised by the Planning Ministry at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) office in Agargaon, Dhaka.

The results were presented by Professor A K Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and a member of the panel. Finance and planning adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir also spoke at the event.

Where the numbers went wrong

The panel examined 22 industrial subsectors. In several of them, including cement and petroleum, reported production did not match the value added counted in GDP. It identified 7 sources of overestimation:

• Small samples in the industrial production index: some large industries were measured using data from only one or two firms.
• Tax data: National Board of Revenue (NBR) figures were not properly cross-checked. Revenue growth was reported at 20% in FY2014-15 and 23% in FY2016-17.
• Export data: Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) numbers did not match Customs and Bangladesh Bank figures.
• Unverified administrative data from government agencies and monopoly firms.
• Construction: a structure where changing a single data point shifted the whole estimate.
• Cottage and small industries: estimated with formulas instead of direct data.
• Carrying forward past trends, which kept the errors going year after year.

The readymade garment sector showed no major discrepancy because reliable data exists for it, the panel said.

What officials said

Adviser Titumir said the aim is to restore trust in official statistics through scientific research methods. He claimed growth was inflated to serve political interests under the Awami League government, when reported growth reached nearly 8%. Professor Haque said that when a sector shows a sudden large jump, secondary data should be checked against other sources.

Background

Questions about GDP data are not new. The White Paper committee formed in 2024 also raised doubts about the high growth reported since FY2012-13. An error of less than 1 percentage point a year may look small, but sustained over more than a decade it changes the real size of the economy and affects per capita income and the debt-to-GDP ratio.

What happens next

The government has decided to treat Bangladesh Bank's export data as the authoritative source from now on. BIDS made 10 reform recommendations, including:

• Standard templates that record data sources and every change.
• Regular updates of the Survey of Manufacturing Industries (SMI) and moving away from the 2005 base year.
• A strategy to reconcile EPB, NBR and Bangladesh Bank data.
• Professional leadership and institutional independence for BBS, with technical review before data is released.

These are initial findings. The full revised GDP series will be known once the final report is published. Priyo News 24 will follow the story.